Fossil fuels are the backbone of economies worldwide, so governments spend a lot to support them. A new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance says altogether governments spent between $43 anf $46 billion on renewable energy and biofuels last year, not including indirect support, such as subsidies to corn farmers that help ethanol production. Direct subsidies of fossil fuels came to $557 billion, the report says.

This disparity raises the question--if the report is right and fossil fuels require so much backing, can they compete with renewables without government support? After all, some renewables--such as sugarcane based biofuels and some wind farms--can already compete with fossil fuels. Without the huge government subsidies for fossil fuels, wouldn't they be eclipsed by renewables?

The answer, for now, is no. So far renewables just can't provide enough fuel and power to displace fossil fuels. The infrastructure to make and distribute them isn't adequate, and many renewables have shortcomings that can make them difficult to work with--solar panels, for example, only generate electricity when the sun is out. If the fossil fuel subsidies disappear, gasoline and electricity prices will increase. That will help renewables compete, and increase in scale, but it will take years--likely decades--for them to reach levels high enough to replace all fossil fuels.

Novozymes, based in Bagsvaerd, Denmark, recently announced it is taking steps to build a demonstration plant for converting agricultural waste into ethanol in China, with the help of partners there. On the same day UOP Honeywell, based in Des Plaines, IL, and Boeing announced plans to work with Chinese partners to develop renewable aviation fuel .

The projects are part of an effort in China to find alternatives to petroleum, which it largely has to import--gas costs over a dollar more in China than it does in the United States. Demand is growing as the number of cars increases from 130 million today to an expected 200 million in ten years. The Novozymes plant, to be built in cooperation with China-based COFCO and Sinopec, will produce 3 million gallons of bioethanol a year. China's agricultural waste could supply about 10 percent of the country's oil consumption by 2020, according to Novozymes.

Ethanol giant POET says it can make ethanol from cellulosic sources--rather than the corn grain it's usually made from in the United States--for costs that are approaching that of corn grain ethanol. Last year, when it started a pilot plant for making ethanol from corn cobs (one of many potential cellulosic sources), it cost $4.13 to make a gallon of ethanol. Now it costs just $2.35 per gallon. In comparison, corn grain ethanol costs about $1.60 to $1.90 a gallon, a cost heavily dependent on the price of corn and natural gas. The company hopes to get costs below $2 a gallon.

That's considerably more than the $1 per gallon figure that some startups are claiming, but who knows if those estimates will pan out. The $2.35 figure from POET seems solid--it comes from a company that knows how to make large amounts of ethanol, and the figure includes all of the relevant costs: "interest, depreciation, wages, benefits, repairs, maintenance, insurance, etc.," according to a company spokesperson. It seems like a good indication that cellulosic ethanol could soon be competitive with conventional ethanol, and fossil fuels.

A number of factors have helped bring costs down, the company says.

· Chemical raw materials required in the process have been reduced, resulting in an operating cost savings of $0.20 per gallon.

· The energy used in the pretreatment process has been reduced by more than half.

· Alternative energy technology has been demonstrated to provide all of the energy for the cellulosic ethanol plant and at least 80 percent of the adjacent corn-based plant.

· Enzyme cost has been cut in half and is expected to continue to decline.

· Through continuous optimization of the process, entire unit operations have been eliminated, reducing overall capital cost by over 40 percent.